Juvenile white sharks will likely linger near La Jolla and San Diego's northern beaches longer than usual this year, as record-warm ocean temperatures fueled by a strengthening El Niño delay the animals' annual migration south.
Jack Elstner, a PhD candidate and shark researcher at Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, told FOX 5/KUSI on Tuesday, Aug. 18, that if warmer water temperatures continue as projected, "Southern California residents can expect to see sharks staying in the area later into the season."
The young sharks typically spend summer and fall in nursery grounds off Torrey Pines and Del Mar before migrating to Baja California when water cools in winter. But ocean temperatures off San Diego have been hovering around 70 degrees, and Scripps Pier data shows at least 42 days of record-high water temperatures recorded in 2026 alone.
During the last El Niño, Elstner said, juvenile white sharks gathered in much higher densities than under normal conditions.
At least three shark sightings have been reported at San Diego County beaches since spring 2026. On Friday, July 31, two brothers spearfishing off Point Loma had a close encounter with a white shark captured on video.
El Niño forecast to peak this fall
The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during fall and winter 2026-27, with peak intensity expected between October and December. There is a 69% chance the event will break records dating back to 1950, with sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding 2.0°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific.
As we reported on Tuesday, Aug. 18, La Jolla residents are being urged to prepare for the broader impacts of the El Niño season.
La Jolla Cove: a shark refuge
A Scripps study published in spring 2026 tracked 22 juvenile white sharks with acoustic tags during Tropical Storm Hilary in August 2023 and found a "discernible increase" in shark pings at La Jolla Cove during the storm. The cove sits next to a submarine canyon that gives sharks quick access to deeper water.
One tagged shark dove to 132 meters (433 feet) in La Jolla Canyon as the storm hit San Diego on Aug. 20, 2023. It was the deepest dive recorded during the study.
Brice Semmens, a Scripps marine ecologist and co-author of the study, said in a July 28 news release that the research helps scientists "make better decisions that support both shark conservation and safe ocean use."
What swimmers and surfers should know
Encounters with humans remain rare. Elstner emphasized that while shark activity is expected to increase, beachgoers should respect the animals and keep their distance.
The Shark Lab at California State University, Long Beach, which has monitored juvenile white shark populations off Southern California since 2018, expects an increase in sharks, rays, skates and sawfish along the coast with warmer waters this year.
San Diego City Council President Joe LaCava reported on Wednesday, July 22, that lifeguards had responded to approximately 2,700 water rescues since June 1, including 336 in a single week, driven by high surf and rip currents.
The next NWS El Niño update is scheduled for Thursday, Sept. 10.
