Tropical Storm Marie could send life-threatening surf and rip currents to La Jolla's south-facing beaches the Labor Day weekend, the National Hurricane Center warned Tuesday, Sept. 1.
The storm formed off the coast of Baja California with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Wednesday, Sept. 2, FOX 5 San Diego reported. It is not expected to make landfall in Southern California.
The danger is in the water, not the wind. Swells generated by Marie are forecast to spread northward into Southern California over the holiday weekend, producing what the National Hurricane Center called life-threatening surf and rip currents, according to LATF USA. Tropical storm-force winds extend 195 miles from the storm's center, pushing energy toward the coast even as Marie stays offshore.
Kristan Lund, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service office in Oxnard, told the Los Angeles Times, "There's increasing confidence in moderate-to-large surf from the south swell starting as early as Friday."
"We could have coastal flooding because we'll have above-normal tides during the same time, especially along south-facing shores," Lund said.
That south-facing exposure puts La Jolla Shores and other local beaches squarely in the path of the incoming swell.
High tides compound the risk
Elevated surf alone would be dangerous. The timing makes it worse. Evening high tides are expected to reach 6.5 to 6.8 feet on Sunday, Sept. 6, and around 7 feet on Monday, Sept. 7, according to LATF USA citing the National Weather Service. The combination of tropical swell and above-normal tides could produce minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. Moderate coastal flooding is possible if the largest waves coincide with high tide.
Sebastian Westerink, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service's San Diego office, told the Los Angeles Times that the storm will likely weaken before reaching the region. He said it will "very likely be below hurricane status and even tropical storm status" by the time it nears Southern California.
No coastal watches or warnings were in place for the Southern California coast as of Tuesday, Sept. 1.
Lifeguard rescues already near annual totals
The holiday weekend surge comes as San Diego's lifeguard crews are already stretched. Candace Hadley, public information officer with San Diego Fire-Rescue & Lifeguards, told FOX 5 San Diego on Aug. 25 that lifeguards had performed about 5,480 rescues since June. That nearly matched the 7,000 to 8,000 rescues the agency typically records in a full year. Many of those rescues were rip-current related.
Light, scattered showers are also possible over the weekend across San Diego County, according to FOX 5 San Diego. Winds are expected to pick up through Wednesday, bringing an elevated fire risk.
The National Weather Service's Los Angeles office described the holiday weekend on Aug. 30 as "a low confidence period with many potential scenarios," but said the highest risks were large waves and strong rip currents near times of high tide.
Beachgoers heading to La Jolla Shores, Windansea or other local breaks the Labor Day weekend should check the latest National Weather Service advisories at weather.gov and swim near staffed lifeguard towers.
