San Diego County's Measure B holds a lead of roughly 23,500 votes in early returns, putting the half-cent sales tax increase on a path toward approval.

As of Nov. 5, the measure had drawn 374,267 yes votes (51.62%) and 350,762 no votes (48.38%), according to NBC San Diego. The margin has grown since the initial ballot release. But more than 500,000 ballots remained uncounted as of Wednesday morning, Nov. 4, according to Fox 5 San Diego, and the San Diego County Registrar of Voters has until Dec. 3 to certify results.

Measure B needs a simple majority to pass.

What it means for La Jolla shoppers

The citizen-led initiative would raise the county sales tax rate from 7.75% to 8.25% on purchases already subject to California sales tax. Groceries and prescription medications are exempt, Fox 5 reported.

Alan Gin, economics professor at the University of San Diego Knauss School of Business, said the per-transaction cost is small. "If you spent $100 on taxable items that would be 50 cents," Gin said, according to Fox 5. But he added that the impact grows over time: "for a household and at the end of the year that could be significant, where it would have bigger impact is for people who make major purchases."

The measure has no expiration date. The ballot language states it lasts "until ended by voters."

Where the money goes

Measure B is estimated to generate $400 million to $450 million a year. The revenue breakdown, according to the Times of San Diego, would direct 60% to healthcare, childcare, food security and other family services. Another 22.5% would go toward the Tijuana River sewage crisis cleanup. Public safety, wildfire prevention and emergency response would receive 16%, with up to 1.5% for administration and oversight.

About $80 million annually would target the sewage crisis specifically, according to Fox 5. District 1 County Supervisor Paloma Aguirre said that money could be leveraged through bonding. "That could be used to bond and grow that number to close to half a billion dollars which could very easily go to fund a capture and clean system of infrastructure," Aguirre said.

Supporters see a lifeline

Aguirre framed the measure as a local response to federal funding cuts. San Diego County faces an estimated $300 million budget shortfall tied in part to reductions in federal funding, according to the Times of San Diego.

"People understand that we're going to have to save ourselves and the way to do it is through this measure," Aguirre said, according to Fox 5.

The Yes on B campaign said in a statement that it had "full confidence" the measure would prevail once all ballots are counted, NBC San Diego reported.

Opponents push back

Mark Kersey, president and CEO of the San Diego County Taxpayers Association, said the tax burden should not fall on local residents. "These are things Washington should be doing obviously Mexico should be doing as well," Kersey said, according to Fox 5.

Kersey raised a specific concern: that local funding could reduce pressure on the federal government to act. He also questioned the measure's permanence. "What do you do if the priorities of today are not the same priorities two, five, ten years from now?" Kersey said.

He pointed to the midterm election results, arguing that a partisan shift in Congress could restore some federal cuts. Aguirre pushed back, saying Senate Democrats would still need 60 votes to overcome a filibuster and that a presidential veto remained possible.

The Registrar of Voters' next results update was expected Nov. 5, with final certification due by Dec. 3.